Saturday, February 27, 2010

Euro reprieve after a heavy week

from MoneyTrading.com.au

Although the Greek sovereign fears remain close to hand, the forex market is a little calmer to end the week as dealers move to lighten the load a little wrapping up profitable short positions against the euro.

In a day in which inclement weather has largely closed Manhattan due to heavy overnight snowfalls, there is a lack of impetus to take further bets in favor of the dollar especially in light of some tepid economic data of late, which in a sense provides a reprieve for the euro.

Meanwhile an upward revision to fourth quarter GDP growth is providing some respite for the dollar. Growth came in at 5.9% after an initial reading of 5.7%.

Euro – The euro is coming back from a hosing on Thursday when it hit a one-year low against the Japanese yen. Dealers are reportedly buying the euro at the end of the week with a real lack of fresh news that would justify taking further risk aversion bets. A weak GDP report from Britain saw dealers ditch sterling in favor of the euro, which gives the appearance of a more robust euro rebound today. Still, those gains are real and the euro is on a roll to end the week. Against the dollar the single currency buys $1.3570 ahead of Friday morning data for the U.S.

Aussie dollar – Despite its physical distance from Greece, the Australian economy continues to feel the weight of the fiscal challenges weighing on the Eurozone. The impact remains one of Aussie dollar avoidance as Greek fiscal situations and its entourage in terms of potential ratings upsets grips traders’ attention. Overnight the Aussie slumped to as low as 88 U.S. cents before moving back to 88.96 in early New York trade. Next week the RBA decides on whether to lift interest rates for a fourth time and is quite likely to move to 4%. The current degree of risk aversion is weighing heavily on the Aussie possibly in part because of the drama surrounding the sharp decline in the euro. The further the single European currency slides, the greater attention it draws to the potential for a sharper slowdown in global growth.